2012/05/18

Do Generic Polls Show GOP Lead Narrowing?

I do not think I am the last one with faith in my American brothers and sisters. Between now and 7:00 PM on Tuesday November 2nd, 2010 I will be reminding our fellow citizens of what is at stake.

Let me be clear, losing the House and/or Senate will not destroy our country. It will however move us that much further away from bringing this country back for the middleclass. It is a shame that in case of that eventuality, the middleclass will have to lose that much more of their wealth and income as well as having to watch many more jobs leave the US as protection for our home grown job creation is eroded by the corporatists in the Republican party.

So we should not despair. Fight to stem the GOP wave caused by the best misinformation engine America has ever seen. If by chance we are unsuccessful, we lick our wounds and restart the fight at 7:00 AM November 3rd, 2010. The country is worth that much.
—–
My Book: As I See It: Class Warfare The Only Resort To Right Wing Doom
Book’s Webpage: http://boo­ks.egberto­willies.co­m – Twitter: http://twi­tter.com/e­gbertowill­ies


imageWASHINGTON – Readers of The Washington Post woke this morning to the headline "GOP HOLDS EDGE AT FINISH" splashed across its front page. An above-the-fold graphic, under the heading "Republicans keep a slight advantage," illustrated results from the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll showing likely voters favoring the Republican candidate in their Congressional district over the Democrat by a four point margin (49% to 45%).

No one should quarrel with the lead of the Post story (which has a different online headline): Based on all available evidence, Republicans do "appear poised to capture control of the House and are likely to make substantial gains in the Senate," a point also stressed in the ABC News analysis of the same poll. What Post readers may miss, however, is the subtext of two important words in the headlines: "edge" and "slight."

A four-point Republican margin on what is known among pollsters as the "generic" House ballot, is closer than what most other recent national polls have been showing (at least as of this writing), particularly those from Gallup, Rasmussen Reports, Fox News and others showing outsized Republican leads. Another new CNN poll released just just this morning shows Republicans leading by seven (52% to 45%). Of course, the Post/ABC poll is just one estimate with a margin of error — random change alone might have produced a wider or narrower Republican lead had they conducted multiple polls using the same methods.

But that said, a four-point Republican margin would suggest the Republicans winning control of the House but by narrower margins than the 50+ seat gains widely predicted in recent days. The statistical model of Emory University Professor Alan Abramowitz, presented at a recent conference of political scientists, shows that the difference between a tie on the generic congressional ballot and a ten-point Republican lead translates into a potential spread of Republican gains of between 40 and 57 seats (ignoring the margin of error for the model). If Republicans lead by 5 point in the generic ballot, the Abramowitz model predicts a 49-seat Republican gain. They need to pick up a net 39 seats to win majority control.

We will have many more new national generic ballot numbers to ponder over the next 24 to 48 hours, but for now, consider the following table, which shows the most recent results reported by 13 different pollsters over the last few weeks. They show everything from a 3-point Democratic advantage (Newsweek) to a 14-point Republican landslide (Gallup’s 40% turnout scenario), and every one of these surveys is based on a sample of "likely voters." Our most recent generic House ballot trend estimate, based on all public polls, puts the Republican advantage at just under 7 points (49.9% to 42.7%):

2010-10-31-Blumenthal-Generic1031c.png

Do Generic Polls Show GOP Lead Narrowing?

Four questions for Republicans…and four answers for undecided voters #p2 #tcot #teaparty

by Jed Lewison
Sat Oct 30, 2010 at 08:16:03 AM PDT

[Such a good reminder, we're going to run it once every day until the election. Susan]

Questions:

  1. What was the average monthly private sector job growth in 2008, the final year of the Bush presidency, and what has it been so far in 2010?
  1. What was the Federal deficit for the last fiscal year of the Bush presidency, and what was it for the first full fiscal year of the Obama presidency?
  1. What was the stock market at on the last day of the Bush presidency? What is it at today?
  1. Which party’s candidate for speaker will campaign this weekend with a Nazi reenactor who dressed up in a SS uniform?

Answers:

  1. In 2008, we lost an average of 317,250 private sector jobs per month. In 2010, we have gained an average of 95,888 private sector jobs per month. (Source) That’s a difference of nearly five million jobs between Bush’s last year in office and President Obama’s second year.
  1. In FY2009, which began on September 1, 2008 and represents the Bush Administration’s final budget, the budget deficit was $1.416 trillion. In FY2010, the first budget of the Obama Administration, the budget deficit was $1.291 trillion, a decline of $125 billion. (Source) Yes, that means President Obama has cut the deficit — there’s a long way to go, but we’re in better shape now than we were under Bush and the GOP.
  1. On Bush’s final day in office, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 closed at 7,949, 1,440, and 805, respectively. Today, as of 10:15AM Pacific, they are at 11,108, 2,512, and 1,183. That means since President Obama took office, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 have increased 40%, 74%, and 47%, respectively.
  1. The Republican Party, whose candidate for speaker, John Boehner, will campaign with Nazi re-enactor Rich Iott this weekend. If you need an explanation why this is offensive, you are a lost cause.

The moral of the story is this: if you vote Republican, I hope you enjoy Election Day — because you’re not going to like what comes next.

I Remember The Last 8 Years, Shouldn’t You? #p2 #tcot #teaparty

My Book: As I See It: Class Warfare The Only Resort To Right Wing Doom
Book’s Webpage: http://books.egbertowillies.comTwitter: http://twitter.com/egbertowillies

Jon Stewart & Stephen Colbert preside over 150,000+ Rally To Restore Sanity #p2 #tcot #teaparty

The entire three hours of the Rally To Restore Sanity was very easy to watch unlike the rally by Glenn Beck which was simply full of hate. Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, two comedians, seem to be more relevant in their satire than the politicians and pundits.

When comparing the crowds from the Right Wing rallies to this “Left Wing” rally showed a stark difference in their temperament and humanity. The crowd looked like the multicultural matrix that is America today. The composition on the mall mimicked while not in numbers but in appearance, that ocean of people attending President Obama’s inauguration.

If these people and their friends and family of similar minds vote, both the Congress and the House will be maintained.

 

My Book: As I See It: Class Warfare The Only Resort To Right Wing Doom
Book’s Webpage: http://books.egbertowillies.comTwitter: http://twitter.com/egbertowillies

 


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Washington (CNN) — Assisted by a colorful cast of characters, Comedy Central funnymen Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert held a raucous rally on the National Mall Saturday in typical fashion before a cheering throng of supporters.

Amidst all the hilarity, however, the "Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear" carried a message about Americans turning their backs on hate and working together to make the world a better place.

Stewart and Colbert staged a mock battle, with Stewart supporting peace and sanity and Colbert promoting fear before a crowd that stretched nearly the length of the mall, most of the distance between the Capitol and the Washington Monument.

During the rally’s opening, Colbert appeared on a video screen, saying he was trapped in his "fear bunker" and worried no one had shown up. Drawn by cheers, however, Colbert ascended to the stage in a device like that used to bring up the trapped Chilean miners earlier this month, wearing a superhero costume.

Former "Saturday Night Live" character Father Guido Sarducci — played by comedian Don Novello — provided a benediction, thanking God for "making it so easy to find parking spaces." And actor Sam Waterston of "Law and Order" fame read a poem entitled "Are You Sure?" about fears including "funnel clouds and hail/Anthrax in the mail … someone’s robbing your house/I can see through your blouse/Your mother was right, you chose the wrong spouse."

Cat Stevens, also known as Yusuf Islam, sang his song "Peace Train" as part of a duel with Ozzy Osbourne singing "Crazy Train." Stewart stopped Osbourne, rooting for Islam, as Colbert urged Osbourne on. The two compromised on the O’Jays, who showed up to sing their hit "Love Train."

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and "Star Wars" robot R2-D2 provided a lesson in tolerance and against stereotyping. "We’re all on the same team," said Abdul-Jabbar, referencing Colbert and Stewart’s discussion about Muslims.

There were some serious notes struck during the event, however. Kid Rock and Sheryl Crow performed a musical number about changing the world, including the lyrics, "The least that I can do is care."

CONTINUED

Stewart, Colbert preside over lighthearted, star-studded rally – CNN.com

Kingwood Observer Article (2010-10-27) Willful Ignorance #p2 #tcot #teaparty

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Click here for PDF of this article.

Letters to the Editor-Oct. 27

Willful ignorance

Dear Editor:

President Obama promised hope and change. Hope and change is still unrealized but in progress. Unfortunately, it is impossible that 30 years of policies that inherently undermined the American middle class can be turned around in 20 months.

It took over a decade to get out of the Great Depression, and not until extreme stimulus spending effected by World War II were we able to get out and use that stimulative springboard of government spending to prop the private sector to create an unprecedented employment boon.

While we claim to fight wars on freedom, terrorists, taxes and many other issues that hardly qualify as wars, we forget to fight that war that afflicts 97 percent of Americans. Class warfare is being waged against more than 295 million Americans. If there is a war worth fighting now, this is the war.

Americans are justifiably angry. They are angry because of a jobless recovery. They are angry because of an overwhelming budget deficit whose effects they do not quite understand. They are angry because of unfettered increases in health care costs.

Supposedly this anger was instrumental in the formation of the tea party grassroots movement. While this may be partially true, the tea party comprises the amalgamation of three distinct factions. There is the Conservative/quasi-Libertarian faction that simply wants small government. There is a super wealthy/corporatist faction that finances the movement and serves as chief purveyor of misinformation to maintain the status quo. And finally there is the racist militant faction that wants to take the country back given their disdain that Americans would elect a black president.

The latter faction, while physically dangerous, is inconsequential for America’s future success, as the vast majority of Americans are good people.

Of major consequence is what the wealthy/corporatist faction is doing to corrupt the body politic of the country. They have used corporate and personal wealth to perfectly orchestrate a plausible alternate reality. In this alternate reality, irrespective of past experience, economics and mathematics, keeping low taxes specifically on the wealthy (wealthy disproportionately owns most of the income and wealth and as such pay most of the taxes) will somehow generate enough economic activity to increase the absolute value of taxes while reducing the budget deficit.

They even got an economist, Arthur Laffer, to create a silly curve known as the Laffer Curve to prove this alternate state of reality. The Reagan vs. Bush 1/Clinton economic policies disproved the lie though the Right continues to disregard reality.
Because of the mainstream media’s refusal to present the reality of our current economic morass and because of the right wing echo chamber’s continued spewing of misinformation, many political junkies have decided to write books and blogs to attempt to provide information in a cogent manner.

While exploring your support for maintaining tax cuts for both the middle class as well as the wealthy, consider that on average the middle class’ top tax rate is 35 percent while the wealthy is 15 percent because income from work is progressively taxed at a higher rate than investment income. While exploring your support for ever-more reduction in corporate regulations, note that said policies have led to the outsourcing of a large percentage of our manufacturing jobs among others. While the wealthy benefit from the cheap labor of said outsourcing, the middle class continues its decline.

While being told that repealing the tax cuts on the wealthy would cost jobs, do remember that 10 years of that tax rate created no net jobs while more proportional tax rates created the largest expansion in American history in the ‘90s. The reason is mathematical. The wealthy’s marginal propensity to consume is much less than the average middle class American. In other words, the middle class will spend more of their disposable income, thus creating more economic activity than the wealthy who already can spend as they please and will not necessarily invest that excess in creating jobs in America. It is impossible that the wealthy can be considered overtaxed when middle class income has fallen 5 percent in the last decade while the wealthy has continued to grow. The same applies to wealth in worst proportions as well.

It is understandable that in our busy lives researching for truthful information is neither at the top of our list or something we want to do given the perceived view that our media is providing us legitimate information. The media must balance its interest between its corporate advertisers and its listeners. As such, the listener will always be at a disadvantage.

Knowing that, it is incumbent upon the middle class to do their own independent research from a myriad of reputable, unbiased sources. Inasmuch as the Internet makes this an easier task, care must be taken to cross reference for valid information. It is that concept I used in putting my book together where all pertinent data is cross referenced. In these times there is no reason to be ignorant of the issues.

Remember, when you go into that booth, it is only you, your God and your conscience. People must forget about their prejudices, forget about their fears. People must make the right choice for themselves, their family and the country.

Egberto Willies
Kingwood

ABC Taps Andrew Breitbart For Election Night Analysis–What Happened to Serious News #p2 #tcot #teaparty

One of the reasons ABC, CBS, & NBC news are becoming irrelevant is that as opposed to presenting news, they are attempting to be cable news/opinion. These major news networks were the stalwart of information. Now they are no more than another cost center that must hold their own. ABC hiring Andrew Breitbart move them even further from the cable news/opinion type into the Fox News domain, a journey into an alternate reality.

If you want news and opinion however slanted based on facts stick with CNN or MSNBC.

My Book: As I See It: Class Warfare The Only Resort To Right Wing Doom
Book’s Webpage: http://books.egbertowillies.com – Twitter: http://twitter.com/egbertowillies


imageMedia Matters confirms that ABC News has recruited Andrew Breitbart, the conservative blogger whose out-of-context video footage of Shirley Sherrod got the Agriculture Department official < in back fired>, to provide commentary for the network’s election-night newscast.

The news was first reported by Breitbart’s own website, BigJournalism, whose editor Dana Loesch is on tap to provide live analysis in the ABC News studio on Election Night. Breitbart is slated appear live from a town hall meeting anchored by ABC’s David Muir and Facebook consumer marketing head Randi Zuckerberg.

ABC News spokesman David Ford told Media Matters — which, in the wake of Sherrod’s firing, unveiled a video entitled "The End of Andrew Breitbart’s Credibility", and which maintains detailed files on him — that Breitbart will not have license to lie during the broadcast. "He will be one of many voices on our air, including Bill Adair of Politifact," Ford said. "If Andrew Breitbart says something that is incorrect, we have other voices to call him on it."

For his part, Breitbart seems to be enjoying the backlash that has quickly followed the news; writing on Twitter, he’s taking on all comers. A typical Tweet: "You mean Left going to boycott ABC because I’m on election night panel? Proving my main point: Leftists are PC totalitarians. #juanwilliams"

Earlier, in response to Media Matters editor Eric Boehlert decrying his hiring by ABC, Breitbart challenged Boehlert and his "PC smear mill" to debate him. "If @mmfa is so convinced of my ‘lies’, I will publicly debate these cowards on each & every one," Breitbart wrote. "Anytime, anywhere."

ABC Taps Andrew Breitbart For Election Night Analysis

Voter Intimidation At McDonald’s: Employees Told That, Unless Republicans Win, They Won’t Get Raises Or Benefits

This is what I have been preaching about “ad nauseum”. The destruction of a middleclass able to live in real freedom. The Right Wing knows of the Tea Party’s intellectual ineptitude and have coerced them into believing that the Obama administration and Democrats are the boogeymen/women taking their freedoms away. Really?

When workers are nothing but indentured servants that must abide by the master, the corporatist, we are no longer a Democracy. We are already an Oligarchy given the power of our corporations, the wealthy, and given the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few. The Right Wing is now using the Tea Party to have us evolve into a pure fascist country with only a semblance of democracy.

Progressives better go out there and vote and vote correctly.

—–

My Book: As I See It: Class Warfare The Only Resort To Right Wing Doom
Book’s Webpage: http://books.egbertowillies.com – Twitter: http://twitter.com/egbertowillies


imageWASHINGTON — There may be something rotten at McDonald’s — and it’s not a year-old Happy Meal.

The owner of a franchise in Canton, Ohio enclosed a handbill in employees’ paychecks that threatened lower wages and benefits if Republicans don’t win on Tuesday.

"As the election season is here we wanted you to know which candidates will help our business grow in the future," reads the letter. "As you know, the better our business does it enables us to invest in our people and our restaurants. If the right people are elected we will be able to continue with raises and benefits at or above our present levels. If others are elected, we will not. As always, who you vote for is completely your personal decision and many factors go into your decision."

The note ends with a list of candidates McDonald’s believes "will help our business move forward." It names Republicans John Kasich for governor, Rob Portman for Senate, and Jim Renacci for Congress. With the letter was a biography of Renacci.

"The handbill endorses candidates who have in essence pledged to roll back the minimum wage and eviscerate the safety net that protects the most vulnerable members of our workforce," said Attorney Allen Schulman of Canton law firm Schulman Zimmerman & Associates, which received the documents from an employer who stepped forward. "But it’s more than that. When a corporation like McDonald’s intimidates its employees into voting a specific way, it violates both state and federal election law. It’s no surprise to anyone that Ohio is a battleground state in this election, and for a multinational corporation like McDonald’s to threaten employees like this is morally and legally wrong. This despicable corporate conduct is the logical extension of the Citizens United decision, which has unleashed corporate arrogance and abuse."

Schulman turned over the documents to local prosecutors, asking them to "investigate this matter for a criminal violation." Ohio election law specifically states that no corporation "shall print or authorize to be print…or post or exhibit in the establishment or anywhere in or about the establishment…handbills containing any threat, notice, or information that if any particular candidate is elected or defeated, work in the establishment will cease in whiole or in part, or other threats expressed or implied, intended to influence the political opinions or votes of…its employees."

On Friday, franchise owner Paul Siegfried apologized in a written statement, saying the communication was "an error of judgement [sic] on my part." "Please know it was never my intention to offend anyone," he added. "For those that I have offended, I sincerely apologize."


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CONTINUED

Voter Intimidation At McDonald’s: Employees

Rick Perry I know what you did the last 10 years… Vote Bill White For TX Governor #p2 #tcot #teaparty

In the final four days before the Nov. 2nd Election, we need everyone’s help to Get Out the Vote. Thousands of volunteers will be spreading out across Texas to block walk and make phone calls to our supporters who haven’t voted. Sign up to help out at: http://action.billwhitefortexas.com/p…

President Obama response to latest terrorist attack as should be; serious, calm, no hyperbole #p2 #tcot #teaparty

For those who believe this event was election related, I must agree. It is likely however on the part of Al-Qaeda wanting to negatively influence our election, possible to harm President Obama’s presidency for his covert methodical annihilation of Al-Qaeda leaders thru out the world with his fleet of drones.

While many on the left have been critical of this operation, it is evident that its cost, efficiency, and success thus far vindicated the President’s preferred stance on fighting terrorism.Having a thoughtful and intelligent president in command for a change is important in these serious times. Tinkering with the buffoonery on the Right vis a vis, the Sarah Palin, Sharon Angle, Ron Paul, & other intellectually inept candidates cannot help but make America less safe.

—–

My Book: As I See It: Class Warfare The Only Resort To Right Wing Doom
Book’s Webpage: http://books.egbertowillies.com – Twitter: http://twitter.com/egbertowillies


imageWASHINGTON — Authorities in Dubai intercepted an explosive device bound for a Chicago-area Jewish institution aboard a cargo jet, officials disclosed Friday, triggering a worldwide alert and fears that al-Qaida was attempting to carry out fresh terror attacks.

A second package – like the first, shipped from Yemen – was discovered aboard a plane in England. It, too, was addressed to a Jewish organization in the Chicago area, although there was no immediate confirmation about its contents.

Several other cargo planes at airports along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States also were searched, and officials said no explosives were found. An Emirates Airlines passenger jet carrying cargo from Yemen was escorted from the Canadian border to New York City by two military fighter jets, U.S. officials said. They said it was a precautionary action.

President Barack Obama arranged to make a statement about the developments at the White House. Aides said he had been informed about a "potential terrorist threat."

"The president directed U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies and the Department of Homeland Security to take steps to ensure the safety and security of the American people, and to determine whether these threats are a part of any additional terrorist plotting," the White House said in a statement.

An FBI spokesman in Chicago, Ross Rice, said both suspicious packages had been sent from the same address in Yemen.

U.S. officials said they were increasingly confident that the packages were part of a plot by Yemen’s al-Qaida branch, the same group responsible for an attempted bombing of a U.S.-bound airliner last Christmas. They spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the ongoing investigation.

Other officials, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the package found in England contained a printer toner cartridge with wires and powder. It was discovered aboard a plane in East Midlands, north of London.

One official said intelligence personnel had been monitoring a suspected plot for days. The packages in England and Dubai were discovered late Thursday after a foreign intelligence service picked up information related to Yemen and passed it on to the U.S., this official said.

Story continues below

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Confirmation that the package discovered in Dubai contained explosives came from an official United Arab Emirates security source who likewise spoke only on condition of anonymity.

U.S. intelligence officials warned last month that terrorists hoped to mail chemical and biological materials as part of an attack on America and other Western countries using the mail. The alert came in a Sept. 23 bulletin from the Department of Homeland Security and obtained by The Associated Press.

In the hours following the discoveries, Yemeni officials said they had launched a terrorism investigation, and Scotland Yard said its investigators were testing a number of additional items seized from the plane in East Midlands.

U.S. authorities conducted searches of aircraft in Philadelphia, Newark, N.J., and New York City. Local officials said all of the suspicious items and planes that were searched had been given the "all clear." That was before the plane escorted by fighter jets landed in New York.

Suspicious Packages Found On Flights In Philadelphia, Newark

PA Gov Candidate Tom Corbett Asking Supporters To Suppress Philadelphia vote #p2 #tcot #teaparty

This qualifies as instigating his constituents to intimidate voters in Philadelphia. This has also been occurring in the inner city areas of Houston, TX.